Professor Stefano Luconi, professor of History and institutions of the Americas at the University of Padua, recently published with goWare a guide book to one of the central events of 2024, the elezioni prezidenziali American events which will take place next November. Here are some interesting insights from his book in the conversation we had with him.
Primaries already over?
The race for the White House has barely begun that it already seems over after caucuses in Iowa and the first primaries in New Hampshire, two particularly significant elections for the choice of the Republican candidate, given that, for the moment, the Democratic candidate appears to be the incumbent President.
It happened that just after two weeks Trump, reversing all historical trends and shattering all records, won in both states with a considerable margin over the second. Now there is only one challenger left, Nikki Haley.
It must be said that Trump's clear success occurred in two very different types of elections, as the professor explained to us. Luconi in his first speech. In Iowa it was a caucus, i.e. an assembly of exclusively Republican voters, while in New Hampshire (NH) it was an open primary, i.e. elections with a secret ballot in which independents can also take part.
A bit like the primaries of the Italian Democratic Party which brought Elly Schlein to the secretariat after Sergio Bonaccini had prevailed in the member assemblies. In America Trump prevailed with both types of vote. But there are still some reflections.
Indications from the Republican primaries in NH
It is true that in NH Trump prevailed over Nikki Haley by a double-digit margin, but the former governor of South Carolina won the majority of the independent vote.
And this result has an important implication for the outcome of the presidential elections in November. Independents are, in fact, an often decisive group swing states in which, at the end of the counting, the outcome of the elections is decided.
On the other hand, the substantial confirmation of the Iowa result in NH shows that Trump remains firmly anchored to his conservative base, which is clearly the majority of Republicans.
We just have to see if Nikki Haley can make it to the super tuesday (Super Tuesday) of March 5th. Much depends on how much trust her financiers continue to give her, including SUPERPAC, which is part of the Koch Foundation, the most important contributor to the Republican Party.
And it is precisely to the topic of financing candidates' campaigns that our third meeting with the professor is dedicated. Luconi.
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The issue of campaign finance is a pretty tough one, isn't it?
Surely. If Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov claims that the next Russian presidential elections would be just "expensive bureaucracy", the American journalist Greg Palast argued that their US counterpart would represent the "best democracy money can buy".
It would seem that, in the country that is a symbol of consumerism, even the White House is for sale and available to the wealthiest aspirant.
In fact, the impression seems supported by the observation that since 1976 some sentences of the Supreme Court have annulled the provisions that had previously imposed limits on electoral expenses and contributions paid to candidates, thanks to an equalization between the use of money for political purposes and freedom of expression protected by the First Amendment of the Constitution.
Isn't there some sort of public funding?
I was just getting there. To reduce economic inequalities between candidates, forms of public financing for electoral campaigns were introduced in 1976, in proportion to the number of votes obtained and also accessible to candidates of minor parties on condition that they obtain at least 5% of the votes.
Are there any other conditions to access these funds?
In fact yes. To benefit from it, it is mandatory to agree to contain expenses. Following the expansion of the costs of politics (the overall expenditure of the race for the presidency in 2020 exceeded 4 billion dollars), these brakes appeared too restrictive.
So what happened?
Since Obama in 2008, the main candidates have renounced public contributions, relying on the ability to raise larger funds through donations from individuals, companies and interest groups.
So does the equation, more money to spend = victory, work?
Mark Hanna, the strategist behind Republican William McKinley's election to the presidency way back in 1896, said that “Two things are important in politics. The first is money. I don't remember the second one." However, considerable budgets do not guarantee victory. For example, in 2016 Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, despite having over 200 million dollars less than her opponent. In 2020 Michael Bloomberg invested around half a billion dollars of his own assets and then withdrew from the Democratic primaries after winning just 61 of the over 1000 delegates up for grabs on "Super Tuesday".
And lately?
In very recent times, Nikki Haley spent twice as much as Trump for the Republican primaries in New Hampshire (31 million dollars since January last year against The Donald's 15,7 million), but was defeated by the former president.
Let's talk about PACs, professor. What are they?
Political Action Committees (PACs) represent one of the main tools for influencing politics in general (for example the legislative process of a bill) and the outcome of elections in particular. In this second case, these are entities registered with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the agency responsible for applying regulations on the financing of electoral campaigns, not only for the presidency but also for Congress, and for ensuring that everything happens internally. 'sign of transparency.
Who promotes a PAC?
They are not created directly by a candidate or a party, but by third parties who finance the campaign through donations that they collect from US citizens, but not from foreigners or from companies that compete for the awarding of public contracts.
Do they have a spending limit?
Yes. PACs are subject to spending limits in favor of each individual candidate, but not with regard to the total funds distributed since the beneficiaries can be multiple. They also have restrictions on fundraising. For example, if they are set up by trade unions, corporations and professional associations can solicit contributions only from their own members and not from the external society.
We come to SUPERPAC. What's super?
They are particular PACs that do not have to be subject to a maximum limit in the use of their financial resources, even though they are also prohibited from receiving money from foreign sources. However, in order not to give rise to the suspicion of fueling political corruption and to demonstrate a disconnect from future or current holders of public offices such as the president, SuperPacs are prohibited from paying their contributions directly to candidates and parties as well as from coordinating strategies with them. of expense. Instead, they can use the money they have to support the specific initiatives of those they would like to win the elections and to attack their opponents.
For example?
For example, American Bridge 21st Century, one of the SuperPACs aligned with Biden with greater economic resources, has allocated 140 million dollars in advertising to paint the incumbent president as a staunch champion of women's reproductive rights and Trump as a threat to the democracy, but cannot legally hand over this figure into Biden's hands, leaving it to him to manage. To give a dimension of their relevance, at the moment there are over 1.900 SuperPACs registered with the FEC and they have a current availability of almost 440 million dollars.
Thanks professor. Luconi. Since the candidacy games seem to already be over, next week we will talk about the two conventions in which the vice-president will also be chosen.
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Stefano Luconi teaches History of the United States of America in the Department of Historical, Geographical and Antiquity Sciences at the University of Padua. His publications include The “indispensable nation”. History of the United States from its origins to Trump (2020) US institutions from the drafting of the Constitution to Biden, 1787–2022 (2022) and Lthe black soul of the United States. African Americans and the difficult path to equality, 1619–2023 (2023)
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Books:
Stefano Luconi, The race for the White House 2024. The election of the president of the United States from the primaries to beyond the vote on November 5, goWare, 2023, pp. 162, €14,25 paper edition, €6,99 Kindle edition
Stefano Luconi,US institutions from the drafting of the Constitution to Biden, 1787–2022, goWare, 2022, pp. 182, €12,35 paper edition, €6,99 Kindle edition
