March 4 will not only be a decisive day for Italy, but also for Germany. While the Italian citizens will be busy electing the new government, the Germans will be in suspense to learn the outcome of the social democratic referendum on Grosse Coalition.
The result of the consultation carried out among the 463 members of the SPD on the green light will be announced on Sundayagreement signed on 7 February between the CDU, the CSU and the SPD. There is at stake the possibility of giving Berlin a new government after almost six months of political uncertainty and negotiations.
In the event that the base of the social democratic party were to say Yes to the coalition contract, on 12 March the former party of Martin Schulz will announce the names of its ministers, while 2 days later (14 March) Angela Merkel will officially be able to form a new government.
At the moment, optimism about the outcome of the vote prevails in Germany, but the risk should not be underestimated. If the No wins, Berlin could return to the polls again given that the German chancellor has repeatedly excluded the option of setting up a minority government. An eventuality that scares Europe because it would immediately turn into a sign of instability that comes directly from the largest economy in the Eurozone. Not to mention that a new electoral round could further penalize the big parties, favoring the rise of populism and the extreme right of the Afd. Among other things, the uncertainty is already visible on the markets. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange has lost 7,32% since the beginning of the year and today it travels down by 1,7% a 11972.45 points.
“I am convinced that the coalition contract will get the majority. I have no doubts about that,” said Sigmar Gabriel, the outgoing foreign minister.
According to a survey by Ard Deutschland Trend, 66% of Social Democrat voters are in favor of a new alliance with Merkel's Union, finding it "very positive or positive".
The results of the referendum will be announced around 11 on Sunday 4 March. The ballot envelopes will be collected and carried by mail vans on Saturday evening to the party headquarters in Berlin, the Willy-Brandt-Haus, where around 120 volunteers will be busy with the ballot. Four years ago, on the occasion of the first consultation of this kind, it took 14 hours to open them: at the time 75% of those registered approved the Grand Coalition.
Recall that this grade comes in ua very difficult time for the German Social Democrats che led former leader Martin Schulz to step back from the Cabinet earlier (he said no to the foreign ministry) and then by the leadership of the party. The party's consensus has plummeted to an all-time low, even falling as low as 15,5% under the far-right of Afd (at 16%).
